Wednesday, November 24, 2004

Complete exit poll data compiled - comparison to official counts shows large swing towards Bush

I just saw this linked on a discussion board:
Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions
Full 51 State Early Exit Poll Data Released For The First Time
In the data...we can see that 42 of the 51 states in the union swung towards George Bush while only nine swung towards Kerry.

There has to date been no official explanation for the discrepancy.

Ordinarily in the absence of an obvious mistabulation error, roughly the same number of states should have swung towards each candidate.
That last point bears restating: When exit polls are taken, it is expected that there will be some margin of error, but the error normally does not favor one candidate or the other. It would be as likely for the final count in any state to swing in Kerry's favor as to swing in Bush's favor. What the graphed data shows is that the final counts in the vast majority of states swung towards Bush. Continuing:
Moreover many of the states that swung against Democratic Party hopeful John Kerry swung to an extent that is well beyond the margin of error in exit polls. Exit polls by their nature - they ask voters how they actually voted rather than about their intentions - are typically considered highly accurate.
In fact, as is mentioned in the article, exit polls are accurate enough that some countries use them to guard against vote fraud.

Frankly, I'm convinced. The election was stolen. The odds of such a marked shift between the poll results and the official counts is virtually nil. Or, at least it's small enough so that no self-respecting Ukrainian would accept the results of this election.


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